Politics News

Gurumurthy Kalyanaram asked:


The probability of Obama winning the Presidential elections in November appears to be pretty robust. Here is why –
(1) Based on public polls, it is becoming evident that Obama is most likely to hold all the states (Michigan appears close but it is trending Obama’s way) that Kerry won in 2004. That would give Obama 252 electoral votes. Add to this Iowa which is almost certain to go to Obama — 7 electoral votes. That gives Obama 259 electoral votes.
On the other hand, McCain — at this stage — is not likely to win all the stages that Bush won in 2004 (284 electoral votes.) McCain is almost sure to lose Iowa (7 electoral votes.) Add to this mix, Ohio (20 electoral votes), Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes), and New Mexico and Nevada (each with 5 electoral votes) — there is substantial doubt if McCain can hold these states. That puts McCain at about 225 electoral votes.
(2) The more compelling arithmetic is this. Repeatedly, in large numbers of public polls about 37-38 percent of the likely voters identify themselves as Democrats and about 30 percent as republicans. That leaves about 30 percent as independents. (The Newsweek preference measure which shows that about 55 percent of the voters identify themselves as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans is an outlier.)
Assuming both Obama and McCain get 80 percent of their party votes, the differential gain for Obama would be about 6.5 percent. In the cross-over vote of 20 percent, Obama would lose about 1.5 percent leaving a net lead of about 5 percent for Obama. Assuming that Obama and McCain split the independents, Obama’s overall lead would be about 5 percent.
The only caveat is the potential Bradley-Wilder effect which accounts for about 5-7 percent.
(3) What adds to the odds of Obama’s victory are three other elements: the enormous enthusiasm among democrats and much muted demeanor of the republicans (enthusiasm translates into higher voting percentage and greater voter mobilization, in some cases the enthusiasm gap between the democrats and republicans is as high as 30 points), the extra-ordinarily low approval ratings (in low 30s) of President Bush and the perception that the country is heading in the wrong direction (over 64-70 percent of Americans say this.)

Ernie Fitzpatrick asked:


You knew it was coming and there will be a lot more senior Democratic elders joining in. No one wants to be the last to jump on the train. Hey Jimmy and Al, it’s time to get on board. Show some courage, some resolve. Bubba and Hillary can’t hurt you now: maybe in 2012 but I doubt it will be the same world in 2012 for a lot of reasons!

Democrat John Edwards has given his long-awaited endorsement to Barack Obama. It’s a major boost from a former presidential rival as Obama tries to shrug off Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is determined to press ahead. And Michigan was a great place for it to happen since neither Edwards or Obama had their name on the primary ballot, but Hillary wants credit for winning Michigan.

Why not dream!

The endorsement comes the day after Clinton defeated Obama by more than 2-to-1 in West Virginia. The loss highlighted Obama’s work to win over the “Hillary Democrats” — white, working-class voters who also supported Edwards in large numbers before he exited the race. With victories like West Virginia, who needs them?

So much for Operation Chaos

Edwards, a former North Carolina senator and the 2004 vice presidential nominee, dropped out of the race in late January. Edwards, who is not a superdelegate, said last week that it was “fine” for Clinton to continue making her case but expressed concern that a continued campaign could damage the party’s prospects in November.

Wednesday’s endorsement could help Obama reach out to white blue-collar voters, a demographic that Obama has failed to capture, most notably in the recent Pennsylvania and West Virginia primaries. Edwards had campaigned on the message that he was standing up for the little guy, the people who are not traditionally given a voice in Washington, and that he would do more to fight special interests.

After dropping out of the race, Edwards asked both Clinton and Obama to make poverty a central issue in the general election and a future Democratic administration, something both agreed to do. But in the end, one needs to read the hand writing on the wall and go with the winner.

Thus, Edwards has endorsed Obama! Duh!

David G. Hallstrom, Sr. asked:


So, you have decided to plant rose bushes in your yard or on
your patio, porch or balcony. Now all you have to do is go out
and buy some bushes and plant them. Right? Wrong!!
There are several things that you have to decide before
buying:
1. Where are you planning on planting?
2. Are you going to plant in the ground or in containers?
3. Do you want roses that are scented or unscented?
4. Do you want bushes, trees, climbers, vining or do you want
them to grow into a hedge?
5. Do you want large, medium, small or miniature blooms?
6. Do you want roses for cutting?
7. What colors go best with your garden, patio, porch or balcony?
There are several types of roses, among them are:
Hybrid teas bloom frequently, are hardy, come in a wide
range of colors, are well sented and are good for cutting for
vases. The size of the blooms and the length of the stem depends
on how they are pruned. They make the best long stem roses for
cutting.
Hybrid perpetuals are seldom planted today as they have a
limited color range and normally bloom less frequently. They
are, however, quite hardy and have large well scented blooms.
The “American Beauty” rose is from this category.
Grandifloras are a cross between hybrid teas and
floribundas. The flowers are the same size and shape as hybrid
teas, however they usually have an abundance of blooms on each
stem. These roses are very popular for growing in containers.
Floribundas have slightly smaller flowers but are
hardier, have a longer growing season in cold climates and yeild
large numbers of flowers.
Polyanthas are small averaging just 18 inches in height.
They are very hardy and produce large clusters of small flowers.
Miniatures average between 6 and 12 inches in height,
carry small one inch or less blooms, are hardy and require
little care. These make very good balcony container roses.
Climbers come in several types, Ramblers which are
hardy, fast growing and can develope canes up to 20 feet long.
Pillars are slower growing upright palnts that are well
suited for growing on posts. Trailers are low growing
easy to maintain plants good for covering banks and walls.
Large Flowered Climbers are slower growing but have more
showey flowers and are good for growing against fences and low
walls. Hybrid Teas , Floribundas and Polyanthas can
sometimes become climbers and have the same characteristics as
the bushes.
Tree Roses can be developed from any type of rose. They
are made by grafting a bush onto a long thick trunk. These look
great on a patio or porch.
Shrub Roses are normally small, hardy fairly continuesly
blooming bushes that can be used as hedge (hedges can grow to 5
or 6 feet and provide inexpensive privacy and color), thicket
and trellis (trellis roses can add a beautiful accent to a yard
or home entryway and can be made into an arch) roses. There are
even varieties that can be used as ground cover on embankments
or planted in hanging pots.
Today roses come in hundreds of varieties with new
varieties being developed every year and in an almost limitless
number of colors and color variations. It has been my
experience, however, that usually the darker the color the
heavier the scent. Most white roses seem to have no scent at all.
If you choose the right roses for the right place you
can add beauty and elegance to any garden, patio, porch or
balcony without spending large amounts of money or time.
For tips on what to look for when buying bare root roses
see http://www.nationalrealtorsdirectory.com/barero
otrosesarticle.html