Politics News

Gurumurthy Kalyanaram asked:


The probability of Obama winning the Presidential elections in November appears to be pretty robust. Here is why –
(1) Based on public polls, it is becoming evident that Obama is most likely to hold all the states (Michigan appears close but it is trending Obama’s way) that Kerry won in 2004. That would give Obama 252 electoral votes. Add to this Iowa which is almost certain to go to Obama — 7 electoral votes. That gives Obama 259 electoral votes.
On the other hand, McCain — at this stage — is not likely to win all the stages that Bush won in 2004 (284 electoral votes.) McCain is almost sure to lose Iowa (7 electoral votes.) Add to this mix, Ohio (20 electoral votes), Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes), and New Mexico and Nevada (each with 5 electoral votes) — there is substantial doubt if McCain can hold these states. That puts McCain at about 225 electoral votes.
(2) The more compelling arithmetic is this. Repeatedly, in large numbers of public polls about 37-38 percent of the likely voters identify themselves as Democrats and about 30 percent as republicans. That leaves about 30 percent as independents. (The Newsweek preference measure which shows that about 55 percent of the voters identify themselves as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans is an outlier.)
Assuming both Obama and McCain get 80 percent of their party votes, the differential gain for Obama would be about 6.5 percent. In the cross-over vote of 20 percent, Obama would lose about 1.5 percent leaving a net lead of about 5 percent for Obama. Assuming that Obama and McCain split the independents, Obama’s overall lead would be about 5 percent.
The only caveat is the potential Bradley-Wilder effect which accounts for about 5-7 percent.
(3) What adds to the odds of Obama’s victory are three other elements: the enormous enthusiasm among democrats and much muted demeanor of the republicans (enthusiasm translates into higher voting percentage and greater voter mobilization, in some cases the enthusiasm gap between the democrats and republicans is as high as 30 points), the extra-ordinarily low approval ratings (in low 30s) of President Bush and the perception that the country is heading in the wrong direction (over 64-70 percent of Americans say this.)

Julie Smith asked:


What happened in Iowa last Thursday gave us a little idea of what the United States is willing to do for the next presidential elections. Though the selection process consists of a long way; Obama’s victory in the caucus with some 38% of the vote marks a turning point in the US political history.

The contrast between Clinton and Obama is visible; while Hillary Clinton is surrounded by well known faces from Washington, Obama’s speech appears to touch the feelings of many voters. The word “change” pronounced by Obama many times has penetrated deeply in the democratic side.

On the other hand, Bill Clinton appears to have lost some of his legendary political touch. Though he remains popular with many Democrats, he seems oblivious to the resentment within the Democratic “base”. The advantage of Barack over Hillary Clinton means more than a victory; Iowa’s triumph over race is a message to the world about the real nature of America and a ratification of Obama’s belief that this will be an election year where everything is on the table.

However, Clinton is the first wife of a former American president to run the office…basically no woman has ever been nominated as a presidential candidate by a major party. The 60-years-old lady is not giving up; actually, her campaign already announced that it would dispatch former President Clinton to New Hampshire for the next week seeking to resurrect the Clinton’s dynasty.

While the 46-year-old Illinois senator is focused on Tuesday’s New Hampshire presidential primary, Hillary Clinton is ready to attack his political inexperience as she will battle to prevent her rival from the democratic nomination.

Barack Obama is performing very well for New Hampshire and already started building up an unstoppable momentum. Iowa’s triumph seems to have generated a turnout from 2004 statistics. Apparently, Iowa’s decision was about style, and US citizens seem to be looking for something different…maybe a big change; the decision was not only pro-Obama, but visibly anti-Clinton.

Now, all the attention is focused on New Hampshire where the second round of Primaries will be held next week. The temperature is also expected to be high the next Republican debate with candidates as John McCain, who opinion polls now show leading in New Hampshire after some months of unpopularity.