Politics News

Gurumurthy Kalyanaram asked:


The probability of Obama winning the Presidential elections in November appears to be pretty robust. Here is why –
(1) Based on public polls, it is becoming evident that Obama is most likely to hold all the states (Michigan appears close but it is trending Obama’s way) that Kerry won in 2004. That would give Obama 252 electoral votes. Add to this Iowa which is almost certain to go to Obama — 7 electoral votes. That gives Obama 259 electoral votes.
On the other hand, McCain — at this stage — is not likely to win all the stages that Bush won in 2004 (284 electoral votes.) McCain is almost sure to lose Iowa (7 electoral votes.) Add to this mix, Ohio (20 electoral votes), Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes), and New Mexico and Nevada (each with 5 electoral votes) — there is substantial doubt if McCain can hold these states. That puts McCain at about 225 electoral votes.
(2) The more compelling arithmetic is this. Repeatedly, in large numbers of public polls about 37-38 percent of the likely voters identify themselves as Democrats and about 30 percent as republicans. That leaves about 30 percent as independents. (The Newsweek preference measure which shows that about 55 percent of the voters identify themselves as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans is an outlier.)
Assuming both Obama and McCain get 80 percent of their party votes, the differential gain for Obama would be about 6.5 percent. In the cross-over vote of 20 percent, Obama would lose about 1.5 percent leaving a net lead of about 5 percent for Obama. Assuming that Obama and McCain split the independents, Obama’s overall lead would be about 5 percent.
The only caveat is the potential Bradley-Wilder effect which accounts for about 5-7 percent.
(3) What adds to the odds of Obama’s victory are three other elements: the enormous enthusiasm among democrats and much muted demeanor of the republicans (enthusiasm translates into higher voting percentage and greater voter mobilization, in some cases the enthusiasm gap between the democrats and republicans is as high as 30 points), the extra-ordinarily low approval ratings (in low 30s) of President Bush and the perception that the country is heading in the wrong direction (over 64-70 percent of Americans say this.)

Ernie Fitzpatrick asked:


Guess what today is? It’s SUPER TUESDAY, the day we’ve all been waiting for. Who will get a slight nudge, if anyone, coming out of Super Tuesday? Barack Obama & Hillary Clinton are locked in a very tight race all over the place. What we do know is that the race for the Democratic nomination won’t be settled today, but someone will have the momentum and there seems to be no doubt that is the Barack-Star. But, can he maintain it against the Clinton political machinery? Remember, they don’t play fair!

And then there is the fantasy talk about a “dream ticket”. It sounds terribly exciting and history-making to have a woman and an African-American competing against the Republicans, but there are multiple reasons why this won’t happen. But, it simply isn’t going to happen- either way! Here’s what I see.

Clinton is too arrogant to share the limelight with anyone, even if that person is the Vice President. She will not be overshadowed by anyone! Clinton is popular in Democratic circles, but that pales in comparison to the love and affection showered on Obama. Obama has brought me to tears on a couple of occasions and I’m more of a Republican than a Democrat. He simply has a message of HOPE and that attracts folks on the left, right and the disenfranchised.

Being numero dos is unthinkable for Hillary. She’s not interested in second fiddle and doesn’t want to have to fight to be on the stage.

On the other hand, Obama would not want to carry all the Clinton baggage- can you say Hillary-Gate? He has offered a vision of change, and having to answer to the years of strife under the Clintons would be too much. Further, an Obama run would be about going after Republicans and independents, and Clinton being on the ticket would make that very difficult.

Besides, she’s also 60, and being VP to Obama means that if he wins two terms, she’ll be 68 running for the highest office in the land and she is hearing the “he’s too old” comments aimed at John McCain. Oh yes, and then there’d be the fact that Obama doesn’t really need the constant reminder that the first black president is married to his Vice President, should he choose Hillary, and that he dated more black women that Obama ever did. Who needs the reminders?!

And did I mention that there’s no love lost between the two, not to mention what mutual dis-respect Bubba and Michelle probably have towards each other. I simply can’t image such a dream ticket, which would relationally be a nightmare ticket that would make the Clinton-Gore relationship pale in comparison. Talk abdout the Hatfields and the McCoys!

Way too much bad blood between these two during this campaign. A lot of folks say that George H.W. Bush rankled Ronald Reagan by declaring his economic plan “voodoo economics.” That didn’t keep Reagan from adding Bush to the ticket. But Bush was one of these loyal guys who would have done anything for the party. That’s not Hillary who would do anything for herself only!

No, these two history makers will have to go it alone: and only ONE of them can do that, not both.

Michael Payne asked:


Words are the tools for an architect who will hatch a pyramid for the middle class. A pyramid of words.

Words will renounce a surging military and bring our boys home. Words have stung the beehive.

Words will consummate this rockstar politician with his Cuban megalomaniac.

Bullshit.

Barack Obama has created a fallacious utopia in which actions do not have consequences and consumption does not have a price. How do the voters respond? They love it. They eat out of his palm. He’s become a rockstar with his leather jacket and ripped jeans draped over his political garments. Am I the only one that just doesn’t get it? I’m tempted to bring up the familiar headline, It’s the Voters,Stupid. Well, it IS the voters. And hell, they are stupid.

The voters only see what Obama CAN do. Obama CAN give a $4000 tax credit to any student willing to do community service. But CAN my grandfather, who gave every last penny he managed to scrape back to his family, afford the increase in taxes? No.

Now slap universal healthcare on top of that. Barack Obama will break America with taxes. It’s the classic Democratic copout: if he can’t pay for it, you shouldn’t be able to either. Look, the problem isn’t that not everyone is covered, as Clinton vehemently insists, but the reason WHY they’re not covered; it’s too damn expensive. Drive down the costs of healthcare and naturally more people will be able to afford it.

John McCain knows how to do that. Republicans know how to do that: by encouraging competition among health insurers. It’s the simple philosophy that drives our economy: when one gas station sees another doing well, it wants in on the profits. So, what does it do? It sets up shop near the other in hopes of doing so. Gas prices will in effect go down as they compete for business.

But Barack Obama’s translucent policies aren’t cause of his rockstar status. He’s running as the new kid on the block. Let’s be honest with ourselves, Obama could not run on a message of change if he were another white male. He’s garnered so much media attention because of his race. It is the troubling truth that Americans are more concerned with appearance than approach to government.

Let’s be clear; race does not determine who should run our government. Unfortunately for Obama, comments such as Reverend Wright’s bring the whole issue of race back into the spotlight. In hindsight, Obama’s Texas ad in response to Clinton is laughable. Let’s recap. Clinton ran the classic “3 AM phone call” ad in which the phone is ringing in the White House and Clinton is, because of her experience, the person the voter should want to answer. Obama fired back with an ad that basically portrayed how it’s not the experience that matters, it’s the judgement.

Sorry Barack, but you just sunk your own ship. YOU don’t have the judgement in choosing friends. YOU don’t have the judgement in choosing advisors. So why should you be president? You have neither the experience or the judgement to be president.

Ultimately, while race was Obama’s strenght within the Democratic party, it will prove to be his downfall in the general election. The more the people get to know the newcomer, the less effective his “change” campaign becomes. Without a doubt the media has largely been supportive of Obama. But the more Obama is in the spotlight the more he will be undressed by the American people. The leather will gradually fall to reveal a politician. Imagine that. A politician running for president.