Politics News

Gurumurthy Kalyanaram asked:


Bradley-Wilder effect asserts that some white voters when they reveal their political preferences state the black candidate as their preference (lest they be misconstrued to be closed-minded) in a white-black candidates race though the real preference of the said voters may be the white candidate.

So we have the situation of the publicly expressed polls overstating the support for a black candidate in a black-white candidates political race. The two political choices that are cited as examples of this effect are the 1981 California gubernatorial race between Dukemajian (white candidate) and Bradley (black candidate), and the 1989 Virgina gubernatorial race between Wilder (black candidate) and Coleman (white candidate.)

The question now is: is the Bradley-Wilder effect is still alive? And is it showing up in Obama-Clinton Democratic party presidential contest?

The most compelling data to assert that Bradley-Wilder effect may be operational comes from the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. About one in five Pennsylvania voters said the race of the candidates was among the top factors in deciding how to vote, according to exit polls, and white voters who cited race supported Clinton over Obama by a 3-to-1 margin.

The polls, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for the five television networks and The Associated Press, asked voters if the race of the candidate was important: 19 percent said yes, while 80 percent said no. Of those who said yes, 59 percent voted for Mrs. Clinton and 41 percent voted for Senator Barack Obama. Of those who said no, 53 percent voted for Mrs. Clinton and 47 percent voted for Mr. Obama. Broken down by race, 13 percent of whites said race was important to them, and 75 percent of those voters sided with Mrs. Clinton. Of the 66 percent of whites who said race was not important to them, 58 percent voted for her.

Further, a recent Associated Press-Yahoo News poll found that about 8 percent of whites would be uncomfortable voting for a black president. (The actual percentage is probably higher because voters are shy about admitting a racial prejudice to pollsters.)

So are we watching Bradley-Wilder effect? May be but there are some serious confounding elements. Here is one. Unlike pre-election polls, the exit polls do not involve a “face to face” interview. Rather, the exit poll interviewer’s task is to randomly select and recruit respondents, hand them a paper questionnaire, a pencil and a clipboard and allow the respondents to privately fill out the questionnaire and deposit it into a large “ballot box.” (Note that the “Bradley/Wilder effect” pertained less to exit polls but to pre-election telephone surveys. The underlying theory was that white respondents were sometimes unwilling to reveal their preference for the white candidate in a bi-racial contest when they felt some “social discomfort” in doing so. That is, respondents would be less likely to reveal their true preference in a telephone interview if they believed the interviewer supported a different candidate.)

Claudia Beckford asked:


It is Election Year in the United States of America! It will be the 56th consecutive presidential election and a very peculiar one as the Democrats’ party race for the White House has elected the first woman to run for president; Mrs. Hillary Clinton; former US First Lady; and the first African American, former Illinois State Senator; Barack Obama.

As the process starts to dig deeper there are more politics attacks on both sides; especially now that Obama leads with about 130 delegates after capturing Wyoming on March 8th followed the win on March 11th during the Mississippi primary. Despite his solid campaign representation and ideas to the American people many believe Obama is the eye-centre of a race issue exampling his 90 percent win of black votes in Mississippi and just one quarter of the white vote; a common pattern seemed in the southern states.

Clinton assures that if Obama was not who he is he will not be running for the office; a remark which is being polished due to the possible consequences in the remaining 10 contests in Indiana, North Carolina (May 6th), and the West Indies (May 13th). Let’s not forget the disqualification of the 366 delegates in Florida and Michigan due to unmistakable anomalies as Obama’s name was not on the ballot; therefore, Clinton won both primaries. It is very likely this voting will be repeated via regular mail with a higher than expected multi million cost.

On the other hand; there is the Republican candidate John McClain who many believe is the big winner of this controversial contest as he still has a good chance to win if the Democrats don’t get their act together and show the people what they could do for the United States and the countless problems the country is currently facing among which there is an eminent recession.

A recent nbc News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that 76 percent of voters claim for a president who will shift the current path President Bush has kept over the years and that only a 17 percent will be content with the way things are right now. Additionally, 43 percent claim their situation has worsen in the past four years and a 34 percent states they are better off than 4 years ago. Without a doubt; this is golden opportunity for either Clinton or Obama if they know what to do with it.

The controversial Obama – Clinton / Clilnton – Obama presidential nominee election will soon be decided for the first time in two decades by the North Carolina voters during the May 6th, 2008 primary; this win will ensure a number of delegates and a pattern of who could lead in the rest of the cities to vote. Then on November 4th we will encounter the two strongest US parties and the people make a final resolution.

James Opiko asked:


“Obama biro, yawne yo!” (Obama is coming, clear the way)—Tens of thousands of cheering Luo “Tribesmen” and ululating women screamed as they welcomed Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) back to his father’s ancestral land—Nyangoma Kogelo village in Luo Land, Western Kenya, several weeks ago.

In a matter of hours Obama had soared to unprecedented political prominence in Kenya, eclipsing a bunch of corrupt and heartless nincompoops—The (Mt. Kenya Mafia), who are ruthlessly grinding beautiful Kenya to the ground.

The only difference between the Mt. Kenya Mafia and the current U.S. Republican administration, is that the former have brought Kenya down to it’s “Economic Knees,” while it’s virtually impossible for George Bush’s government to bring down the mighty economy of the United States, no matter how much they misappropriate it’s coffers by way of inflated Iraq reconstruction contracts or Katrina FEMA trailers. Otherwise both groups employ similar schemes – exploiting and manipulating ethnic (racial) intolerance and promoting rampant corruption—a bunch of “cold-blooded” louts.

The six year cesspool of a mess presided over by the Bush administration might not be in vain after all. It has made America hungry for a messenger with a message of hope.

In the NBC “Meet The Press” interview of Sunday 22nd October, I watched Senator Obama intimate that—based on the responses he has been receiving across the country, he is considering running for the presidency of The United States in 2008.

What impressed me most about him is how he tackled the question regarding his previous assertion in 2004—that he would complete his six year Senate term and not run for President in 2008: “I have thought about the possibility, but I have not thought about it with the seriousness and depth I think is required,” Obama said. “My main focus is on 2006, and making sure that we re-take the Congress. After November 7th, I will sit down and consider it.”

Unlike the shifty, programmed, and selfishly partisan politicians I am used to watching on Sunday morning political TV, Barack Obama countered Tim Russert’s questions with poise, spontaneity and most important, he seemed very genuine.

In a political system muddied and tainted by arrogance, corruption and incompetence, watching and listening to Obama is inordinately refreshing.

In Obama I see an intelligent and capable man, unlike the current President who constantly reminds me of an unprepared and confused “open book, open notes” exam taker, badly rehearsed and totally incapable of articulating his views without the stewardship of his father’s cronies, Karl Rove his “Political Architect” and a bone breaking conglomeration of “Hyena” special interest groups.

Obama’s apparent good human qualities added to the fact that he is a great American story, makes the Senator a very attractive prospect for the ultimate prize in politics—The Presidency of The United States.

Is Obama Presidential material?

Many cite his lack of political experience, claiming his resume is too thin for a run at the Presidency. I disagree and here is why:

1. Unlike other black leaders, Obama doesn’t grind “white noses” in Racism, and at the same time he is a symbol of hope to millions of dis-affected blacks and other minorities.

Judging by his Senatorial election win of a 70% majority, Obama has proven that he is a very powerful vote magnet across racial lines. He has established an “inclusive” track record that would be vital in a presidential election if he decides to run. His candidacy would draw out millions of dormant black voters thus making the Democratic candidacy more viable.

On the flipside, we all know that there are some whites such as the right wing gutter constituents of con-man Rush Limbaugh, who will forever embrace Racism and will never accept a black president. A President Obama would mark the beginning of the placement this irritant breed to the fringes of political obscurity.

2. He is NOT a bumbling idiot, appears humble and has not been tainted with partisan politics. Perhaps even more important is that he is a confident intellectual, which I think is a necessary pre-requisite for handling the complex issues of the highest political office in the world.

3. The last Republican President who had some smarts was the foul-mouthed bigot—Richard Milhouse Nixon, who engineered his own downfall with a lethal concoction of homophobia, anti-Semitism, anti-black and “Communist Paranoia.” As a matter of fact Nixon’s political career spanned three decades of scare mongering, witch-hunts and dirty tricks, the same tactics that have been successfully deployed by the current administration over the last six years.

All others after him have been bumbling buffoons with slight exceptions in George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan.

Reagan the Serial Liar who made Americans feel good about themselves, was not only ill informed but partially senile towards the end of his second term – not particularly smart, but a great “Political Actor,” whose major achievements included presiding over the disintegration of the Soviet Empire (which was inevitable anyway), misuse of the World Bank and funding of CIA death squads to safeguard the corporate thievery by US multinational companies in Latin American countries…. and the worst in my opinion; propping the racist Apartheid regime in South Africa.

The “Great Communicator” was just another Republican crook!

Bill Clinton and John Kennedy did not have that much experience. Abraham Lincoln ran after two years in the House, Woodrow Wilson after two years as governor, and Franklin D. Roosevelt & Jimmy Carter after four years as governor.

Perhaps Dr. Martin Luther King summed it up best in his “The Drum Major Instinct” sermon delivered at Ebenezer Baptist Church, Atlanta, Georgia, February 4, 1968 – He said: “Everybody can be great, because everybody can serve…. You only need a heart full of grace, a soul generated by love. And you can be that servant,” qualities that are thoroughly lacking in the Republican base – the “self-chosen” people of “Faith.”

If the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, a very polarizing Democrat, the Republican smear spigots will spill out of control and flood the whole country to an extent that the Katrina calamity will look like a storm in a teacup. On the other hand, an Obama nomination would fuel vicious racial and below the belt “Nyangau” attacks from the right wing, like the slime being spewed by Republican troglodytes against black Democrat Harold Ford Jr. in the Tennessee, or by incumbent Senator George “Macaca” Allen in Virginia.

I wonder if Senator Obama has the stomach for such personal and racist attacks—a GOP staple!

Colin Powell assessed these circumstances in 2000 and chickened out, and subsequently dimmed his star serving in this ham-fisted administration for four years before being pushed out in favor of “yes-woman” Condoleezza Rice. It is rumored that he feared political assassination.

Will Obama follow through or is his potential candidacy just hype?

It is time for America to put it’s Racist legacy behind it, to re-assess its future, and take a closer look at this rising star, for I think Barack Obama is ready—to cleanse the “maligned” soul of America.

Gurumurthy Kalyanaram asked:


 
Senator Barack Obama has opted out of the public financing system in his contest for the U.S Presidency, and John McCain has decided to stay in the system. It appears that Obama may have about $250 million to invest in the months of September and October, and McCain may have only about $85 million.
Should McCain be afraid? No and Yes.
No, because I do not think that Obama’s financial edge will do much for him in advertising (traditional and non-traditional) for his candidacy and causes. The reason is simple — time is short, and there will be galore free publicity. Here are some ways that Obama may use his financial resources to increase the scale and scope of advertising. Let us look at various elements of this advertising.
First, Obama can and will probably advertise in almost all the 50 states — even as his campaign will concede that several states like Alaska have not voted for a Democratic candidate for a very long time. The goal of this exercise to merely scare up McCain’s campaign and force him to spend some of his valuable resources — money and time — in some of those states lest he should lose. Will this be effective? I rate the effectiveness about 3 on a 1-10 scale (10 being most effective) because when push comes to shove McCain will not divert his resources (he cannot afford to) and thus would call the bluff (not out of choice but out of necessity.)
Second, Obama can use micro-segmenting and try and use different media for diffusing his image. Money provides that luxury. Obama can also try non-traditional approaches and media.
Will be this an effective strategy? Better than the 50-states strategy but not overwhelmingly so. I would rate this strategy to be about 5. The reason is simple. The Presidential race will get plenty of free media coverage from networks, cable channels, print media, blogs, u-tube productions and those Presidential debates. Additional reach — over and above these — is likely to have marginal impact. Further, the content/message of the candidate does matter.
The message will determine the basic positioning of the candidate, and no amount of volume of reach can necessarily change that positioning. Two examples of this are: one, though Barack Obama invested thrice as much as Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania Democratic primary and twice as much in Ohio, the ultimate preference numbers did not change from the forecasts three weeks before the actual voting; two, with less than $1 million investment the ‘Swift Boat’ advertisement against John Kerry was devastatingly effective. In the first case, the message was the same but in the second case, the message was sharply different and new (whether that was true or not is besides the point — further, since Senator Kerry did not effectively and immediately repudiate the attacks the message assumed a level of truthfulness as a default.)
Final aspect of this element is that Obama is likely to receive somewhat of a negative coverage from the mainstream media for his rejection of public financing — this is not huge but one cannot ignore the word-of-mouth value of major networks and newspapers. In this case, the word-of-mouth effect would be negative.
Yes, because Obama might gain a very substantial advantage in voter registration, and mobilization with paid staff and localized promotion and patronage. It takes almost one-on-one to persuade a voter to register, and then actually vote on the election day. The upside of such voter mobilization is monumental. Particularly when the enthusiasm for McCain’s candidacy is somewhat muted thus far. For example, in the recent USA Today-Gall Up survey 61% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year’s election, while just 35% of Republicans said that.
Obama can employ this vast resource to mobilizing voters through registering new voters and individual contacts — paid staff (and volunteers) knocking on the doors, telephonic calls, mobilization on the day of the election. Here, the resources can make a very big impact. I would rate the potential effectiveness of this approach about 7. There is substantially higher marginal benefit to be achieved here.
For illustration, let us examine Ohio (20 electoral votes.) In 2000, Al Gore lost the state only by about 350,000 votes even without any campaign investment. In 2004, John Kerry lost Ohio by less than 120,000 votes. If only Kerry had mobilized 10 extra votes in every precinct in Ohio, he would have won Ohio and the Presidency. Obama can pour his resources in the ground game in Ohio and quite possibly win it given the current sour political climate. Similarly, Kerry lost New Mexico and Iowa by less than 20,000 votes each — and that can be easily overcome with strong election-day mobilization. In a state like Georgia where about 600,000 African-Americans have not registered to vote are rich Obama-votes. If they can be mobilized to register to vote and actually turn up to vote, Obama can put Georgia in play. In Florida, more than half a million black registered voters stayed home in 2004. Hundreds of thousands more African Americans are eligible to vote but not registered.

Susan L Reid asked:


On June 7, 2008, Senator Hillary Clinton made history. I knew it as I watched her deliver her exit speech before 2,000 supporters at Washington’s National Building Museum. She wasn’t just endorsing presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama; she was leading by example.

In her speech, she exemplified how to be gracious in the face of defeat. She did not take “no” for failure. She remained ambitious, confident, and strong. There is much the entrepreneurial woman can learn from Senator Clinton, including the following 10 lessons about facing so-called defeat:

1. If there’s an elephant in the room, talk about it right from the start.

“Well, this isn’t exactly the party I’d planned, but I sure like the company.”

2. Be generous with your gratitude and appreciation.

“I want to start today by saying how grateful I am to all of you - to everyone who poured your hearts and your hopes into this campaign, who drove for miles and lined the streets waving homemade signs, who scrimped and saved to raise money, who knocked on doors and made calls, who talked and sometimes argued with your friends and neighbors, who emailed and contributed online, who invested so much in our common enterprise, to the moms and dads who came to our events, who lifted their little girls and little boys on their shoulders and whispered in their ears, ‘See, you can be anything you want to be.’”

3. Reaffirm your commitment.

“To all those who voted for me, and to whom I pledged my utmost, my commitment to you and to the progress we seek is unyielding . . . I will continue to stand strong with you, every time, every place, and every way that I can. The dreams we share are worth fighting for.”

4. Remind people of why you do what you do.

“I entered this race because I have an old-fashioned conviction: that public service is about helping people solve their problems and live their dreams. I’ve had every opportunity and blessing in my own life - and I want the same for all Americans. Until that day comes, you will always find me on the front lines of democracy - fighting for the future.”

5. Let people know what’s next.

“The way to continue our fight now - to accomplish the goals for which we stand - is to take our energy, our passion, our strength and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama the next President of the United States.”

6. Unify rather than divide.

“The Democratic Party is a family, and it’s now time to restore the ties that bind us together and to come together around the ideals we share, the values we cherish, and the country we love.”

7. Know what motivates and inspires you.

“I ran as a daughter who benefited from opportunities my mother never dreamed of. I ran as a mother who worries about my daughter’s future and a mother who wants to lead all children to brighter tomorrows.”

8. Dare to be you.

“Always aim high, work hard, and care deeply about what you believe in. When you stumble, keep faith. When you’re knocked down, get right back up. And never listen to anyone who says you can’t or shouldn’t go on.”

9. Keep things in perspective.

“Although we weren’t able to shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling this time, thanks to you, it’s got about 18 million cracks in it. And the light is shining through like never before, filling us all with the hope and the sure knowledge that the path will be a little easier next time. That has always been the history of progress in America.”

10. Keep moving forward.

“So I want to say to my supporters, when you hear people saying - or think to yourself - ‘if only’ or ‘what if,’ I say, ‘Please don’t go there.’ Every moment wasted looking back keeps us from moving forward. Life is too short, time is too precious, and the stakes are too high to dwell on what might have been.”

Love her or hate her, Senator Clinton holds a vision for the future and keeps her eye on the mark. No moss will ever grow under her feet. Instead, she counts her blessings and moves on. She considers failure as nothing more than a stepping-stone toward success. She is resilient and determined, she never gives up, and she knows who she is. She is a woman getting it done. No agony of defeat for Senator Hillary Clinton!

Susan L. Reid asked:


On June 7, 2008, Senator Hillary Clinton made history. I knew it as I watched her deliver her exit speech before 2,000 supporters at Washington’s National Building Museum. She wasn’t just endorsing presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama; she was leading by example.In her speech, she exemplified how to be gracious in the face of defeat. She did not take “no” for failure. She remained ambitious, confident, and strong. There is much the entrepreneurial woman can learn from Senator Clinton, including the following 10 lessons about facing so-called defeat:1. If there’s an elephant in the room, talk about it right from the start.”Well, this isn’t exactly the party I’d planned, but I sure like the company.”2. Be generous with your gratitude and appreciation.”I want to start today by saying how grateful I am to all of you – to everyone who poured your hearts and your hopes into this campaign, who drove for miles and lined the streets waving homemade signs, who scrimped and saved to raise money, who knocked on doors and made calls, who talked and sometimes argued with your friends and neighbors, who emailed and contributed online, who invested so much in our common enterprise, to the moms and dads who came to our events, who lifted their little girls and little boys on their shoulders and whispered in their ears, ‘See, you can be anything you want to be.’”3. Reaffirm your commitment.”To all those who voted for me, and to whom I pledged my utmost, my commitment to you and to the progress we seek is unyielding . . . I will continue to stand strong with you, every time, every place, and every way that I can. The dreams we share are worth fighting for.”4. Remind people of why you do what you do.”I entered this race because I have an old-fashioned conviction: that public service is about helping people solve their problems and live their dreams. I’ve had every opportunity and blessing in my own life – and I want the same for all Americans. Until that day comes, you will always find me on the front lines of democracy – fighting for the future.”5. Let people know what’s next.”The way to continue our fight now – to accomplish the goals for which we stand – is to take our energy, our passion, our strength and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama the next President of the United States.”6. Unify rather than divide.”The Democratic Party is a family, and it’s now time to restore the ties that bind us together and to come together around the ideals we share, the values we cherish, and the country we love.”7. Know what motivates and inspires you.”I ran as a daughter who benefited from opportunities my mother never dreamed of. I ran as a mother who worries about my daughter’s future and a mother who wants to lead all children to brighter tomorrows.”8. Dare to be you.”Always aim high, work hard, and care deeply about what you believe in. When you stumble, keep faith. When you’re knocked down, get right back up. And never listen to anyone who says you can’t or shouldn’t go on.”9. Keep things in perspective.”Although we weren’t able to shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling this time, thanks to you, it’s got about 18 million cracks in it. And the light is shining through like never before, filling us all with the hope and the sure knowledge that the path will be a little easier next time. That has always been the history of progress in America.”10. Keep moving forward.”So I want to say to my supporters, when you hear people saying – or think to yourself – ‘if only’ or ‘what if,’ I say, ‘Please don’t go there.’ Every moment wasted looking back keeps us from moving forward. Life is too short, time is too precious, and the stakes are too high to dwell on what might have been.”Love her or hate her, Senator Clinton holds a vision for the future and keeps her eye on the mark. No moss will ever grow under her feet. Instead, she counts her blessings and moves on. She considers failure as nothing more than a stepping-stone toward success. She is resilient and determined, she never gives up, and she knows who she is. She is a woman getting it done. No agony of defeat for Senator Hillary Clinton!