Politics News

Gurumurthy Kalyanaram asked:


The probability of Obama winning the Presidential elections in November appears to be pretty robust. Here is why –
(1) Based on public polls, it is becoming evident that Obama is most likely to hold all the states (Michigan appears close but it is trending Obama’s way) that Kerry won in 2004. That would give Obama 252 electoral votes. Add to this Iowa which is almost certain to go to Obama — 7 electoral votes. That gives Obama 259 electoral votes.
On the other hand, McCain — at this stage — is not likely to win all the stages that Bush won in 2004 (284 electoral votes.) McCain is almost sure to lose Iowa (7 electoral votes.) Add to this mix, Ohio (20 electoral votes), Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes), and New Mexico and Nevada (each with 5 electoral votes) — there is substantial doubt if McCain can hold these states. That puts McCain at about 225 electoral votes.
(2) The more compelling arithmetic is this. Repeatedly, in large numbers of public polls about 37-38 percent of the likely voters identify themselves as Democrats and about 30 percent as republicans. That leaves about 30 percent as independents. (The Newsweek preference measure which shows that about 55 percent of the voters identify themselves as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans is an outlier.)
Assuming both Obama and McCain get 80 percent of their party votes, the differential gain for Obama would be about 6.5 percent. In the cross-over vote of 20 percent, Obama would lose about 1.5 percent leaving a net lead of about 5 percent for Obama. Assuming that Obama and McCain split the independents, Obama’s overall lead would be about 5 percent.
The only caveat is the potential Bradley-Wilder effect which accounts for about 5-7 percent.
(3) What adds to the odds of Obama’s victory are three other elements: the enormous enthusiasm among democrats and much muted demeanor of the republicans (enthusiasm translates into higher voting percentage and greater voter mobilization, in some cases the enthusiasm gap between the democrats and republicans is as high as 30 points), the extra-ordinarily low approval ratings (in low 30s) of President Bush and the perception that the country is heading in the wrong direction (over 64-70 percent of Americans say this.)

James Opiko asked:


“Obama biro, yawne yo!” (Obama is coming, clear the way)—Tens of thousands of cheering Luo “Tribesmen” and ululating women screamed as they welcomed Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) back to his father’s ancestral land—Nyangoma Kogelo village in Luo Land, Western Kenya, several weeks ago.

In a matter of hours Obama had soared to unprecedented political prominence in Kenya, eclipsing a bunch of corrupt and heartless nincompoops—The (Mt. Kenya Mafia), who are ruthlessly grinding beautiful Kenya to the ground.

The only difference between the Mt. Kenya Mafia and the current U.S. Republican administration, is that the former have brought Kenya down to it’s “Economic Knees,” while it’s virtually impossible for George Bush’s government to bring down the mighty economy of the United States, no matter how much they misappropriate it’s coffers by way of inflated Iraq reconstruction contracts or Katrina FEMA trailers. Otherwise both groups employ similar schemes – exploiting and manipulating ethnic (racial) intolerance and promoting rampant corruption—a bunch of “cold-blooded” louts.

The six year cesspool of a mess presided over by the Bush administration might not be in vain after all. It has made America hungry for a messenger with a message of hope.

In the NBC “Meet The Press” interview of Sunday 22nd October, I watched Senator Obama intimate that—based on the responses he has been receiving across the country, he is considering running for the presidency of The United States in 2008.

What impressed me most about him is how he tackled the question regarding his previous assertion in 2004—that he would complete his six year Senate term and not run for President in 2008: “I have thought about the possibility, but I have not thought about it with the seriousness and depth I think is required,” Obama said. “My main focus is on 2006, and making sure that we re-take the Congress. After November 7th, I will sit down and consider it.”

Unlike the shifty, programmed, and selfishly partisan politicians I am used to watching on Sunday morning political TV, Barack Obama countered Tim Russert’s questions with poise, spontaneity and most important, he seemed very genuine.

In a political system muddied and tainted by arrogance, corruption and incompetence, watching and listening to Obama is inordinately refreshing.

In Obama I see an intelligent and capable man, unlike the current President who constantly reminds me of an unprepared and confused “open book, open notes” exam taker, badly rehearsed and totally incapable of articulating his views without the stewardship of his father’s cronies, Karl Rove his “Political Architect” and a bone breaking conglomeration of “Hyena” special interest groups.

Obama’s apparent good human qualities added to the fact that he is a great American story, makes the Senator a very attractive prospect for the ultimate prize in politics—The Presidency of The United States.

Is Obama Presidential material?

Many cite his lack of political experience, claiming his resume is too thin for a run at the Presidency. I disagree and here is why:

1. Unlike other black leaders, Obama doesn’t grind “white noses” in Racism, and at the same time he is a symbol of hope to millions of dis-affected blacks and other minorities.

Judging by his Senatorial election win of a 70% majority, Obama has proven that he is a very powerful vote magnet across racial lines. He has established an “inclusive” track record that would be vital in a presidential election if he decides to run. His candidacy would draw out millions of dormant black voters thus making the Democratic candidacy more viable.

On the flipside, we all know that there are some whites such as the right wing gutter constituents of con-man Rush Limbaugh, who will forever embrace Racism and will never accept a black president. A President Obama would mark the beginning of the placement this irritant breed to the fringes of political obscurity.

2. He is NOT a bumbling idiot, appears humble and has not been tainted with partisan politics. Perhaps even more important is that he is a confident intellectual, which I think is a necessary pre-requisite for handling the complex issues of the highest political office in the world.

3. The last Republican President who had some smarts was the foul-mouthed bigot—Richard Milhouse Nixon, who engineered his own downfall with a lethal concoction of homophobia, anti-Semitism, anti-black and “Communist Paranoia.” As a matter of fact Nixon’s political career spanned three decades of scare mongering, witch-hunts and dirty tricks, the same tactics that have been successfully deployed by the current administration over the last six years.

All others after him have been bumbling buffoons with slight exceptions in George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan.

Reagan the Serial Liar who made Americans feel good about themselves, was not only ill informed but partially senile towards the end of his second term – not particularly smart, but a great “Political Actor,” whose major achievements included presiding over the disintegration of the Soviet Empire (which was inevitable anyway), misuse of the World Bank and funding of CIA death squads to safeguard the corporate thievery by US multinational companies in Latin American countries…. and the worst in my opinion; propping the racist Apartheid regime in South Africa.

The “Great Communicator” was just another Republican crook!

Bill Clinton and John Kennedy did not have that much experience. Abraham Lincoln ran after two years in the House, Woodrow Wilson after two years as governor, and Franklin D. Roosevelt & Jimmy Carter after four years as governor.

Perhaps Dr. Martin Luther King summed it up best in his “The Drum Major Instinct” sermon delivered at Ebenezer Baptist Church, Atlanta, Georgia, February 4, 1968 – He said: “Everybody can be great, because everybody can serve…. You only need a heart full of grace, a soul generated by love. And you can be that servant,” qualities that are thoroughly lacking in the Republican base – the “self-chosen” people of “Faith.”

If the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, a very polarizing Democrat, the Republican smear spigots will spill out of control and flood the whole country to an extent that the Katrina calamity will look like a storm in a teacup. On the other hand, an Obama nomination would fuel vicious racial and below the belt “Nyangau” attacks from the right wing, like the slime being spewed by Republican troglodytes against black Democrat Harold Ford Jr. in the Tennessee, or by incumbent Senator George “Macaca” Allen in Virginia.

I wonder if Senator Obama has the stomach for such personal and racist attacks—a GOP staple!

Colin Powell assessed these circumstances in 2000 and chickened out, and subsequently dimmed his star serving in this ham-fisted administration for four years before being pushed out in favor of “yes-woman” Condoleezza Rice. It is rumored that he feared political assassination.

Will Obama follow through or is his potential candidacy just hype?

It is time for America to put it’s Racist legacy behind it, to re-assess its future, and take a closer look at this rising star, for I think Barack Obama is ready—to cleanse the “maligned” soul of America.

lazysubmit asked:


My background is very similar to that of Barrack Obama. My love for a man that gave me clarity and hope is very similar to the love that Senator Obama has towards Rev. Wright. After discovering that we are black, and that acceptance by white people because our mothers are white is dispelled, we then had to learn how to be black. After years of searching for my place, I met a man who inspired me and taught me how to be a black man. In addition to teaching me how to be a black man, he also taught me how to be a caring and loving human being. He stressed the fact that I must be aware of how people view me and treat me, but how I view and treat them does not require that I take race into consideration. The absence of a male black figure in Senator Obama’s childhood was filled by Reverend Wright in the same way that the gentleman who entered my life filled a void for me. I only knew what I would see on the streets and on television about being a black man. I knew that I didn’t want to be a thug, and I could not be a professional athlete because of my lack of physical talent. I was educated and surrounded by white people who I knew would accept me only to a certain degree. It was not because they did not like me as a person. It would only be, in some cases, just because of my skin color. Where was my place in America?

My mentor taught me that I would be viewed and treated as a black man, irrespective of how I viewed myself. However, the defining of who I am as a person can only be done by me. He taught me not only how to be a proud black man, but also how to be a compassionate and understanding human. There were views that he had on issues with which I did not agree in the least bit. It did not in any way change how I viewed this man. I loved this man for giving me the keystone in which I was building my arch in life. This man took on the role of my father. The things that my father could not teach me were supplied to me through this man that I know, love and adore. He answered a question that I had been in search of all my life. The question that had kept me from being whole my entire life was now filled by this man. The hole I tried filling with money, sex, drugs and alcohol was now filled by this gentleman. Neither my mentor nor Rev. Wright (nor any of us, for that matter) is perfect.

Rev. Wright answered some of these same questions for Sen. Obama. When reading his book, Dreams from my Father, it was apparent that Senator Obama struggled with his identity. Sen. Obama acknowledges that he drank at an early age and experimented with drugs. He made a good decision not to continue this destructive behavior and turned his attention towards his education. Yet, still, he lacked a black male in his life to teach him how to be a black man in America and also a loving caring person at the same time. While Rev. Wright’s remarks were not wholly accepted and endorsed by Senator Obama, this difference in perspectives in no way changed Senator Obama’s views about and loyalty to the man that filled an abyss in the senator’s quest to be the best human he can be. There is no college or accomplishments that could have filled that hole. There is no amount of money or intellect that he may have possessed that would accomplish what only another human could. The idea that he could divorce himself and deny the love and appreciation for Rev. Wright is not plausible. We all forgive our fathers for things that happened in our homes. We forgive for things he may say towards us or our mothers.

Rev. Wright has a place of father, mentor , teacher in the senator’s heart and soul. To have disavowed Rev. Wright would have been an abomination. I could never leave or separate from the man that gave me and my life meaning and hope. The idea of hope and love is the most attractive attribute of Senator Obama. America is in a state of hopelessness. People have stopped dreaming of better days. This lack of “Hope and Dreams” of a better tomorrow is what has transcended ethnicity, age, and socio-economic status in attracting the masses to the philosophies of Senator Obama. That which attracts so many of us to Senator Obama is due in no small part due to the role Rev. Wright has played in the senator’s life. The idea of looking for good in people and understanding is a lost art.

My mentor told me that once I realized that it was not for me to be understood, but for me to be understanding, I would then be on my way to being a loving human being. I believe Senator Obama understands through this journey of self-identification that he is not only a Black man, but more importantly a caring and compassionate human being who wants to make a change in people’s lives.

Once we all truly understand the importance of Rev Wright to Senator Obama’s development as a whole person, we then can understand and appreciate the ability of a human to respectfully disagree with another’s views, while compassionately appreciating the goodness of others. I think someone once referred to this phenomenon as tolerance. Hmmm. What a wonderful feeling it is to know that tolerance and empathy are more than the stuff of which lofty goals and sound bites are made. They are laudible and deeply held virtues of the man I hope to soon call Mr. President.

Robert asked:


Folk rock legend Bruce Springsteen endorses Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama. The musician recently posted a letter on his official website that stated his support for the Illinois Senator. The endorsement was posted before a debate between Hillary Clinton and Obama in Philadelphia.

In Springsteen’s letter to fans, he said he supported Obama because he reached out to the same demographic of the USA that the folk rocker’s songs reached out to. The musician believes that Obama’s ideals and dreams for the country reflect his own. He even criticized the detractors of the presidential hopeful for taking attention away from important issues to distract voters.

Bruce Springsteen is only the most recent celebrity to jump on the Obama train. Since the beginning of the caucuses and primaries, all presidential hopefuls have received both financial and vocal support from various celebrities. While some celebrities are content to host fund-raising events or send in checks, others accompany their candidate to public outings and debates and speak out about why they chose a candidate.

The musician is known for his eloquent lyrics and soulful music that deal mostly with the problems of America. His songs have been tied to progressive politics as his lyrics express the concerns of ordinary middle class men and women to make ends meet. Known as “The Boss”, Springsteen is recognized as an icon for the blue collar demographic and it is believed that this will help Obama connect more with those voters. Springsteen also endorsed Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in the 2004 elections.

Senator Obama has had a lucky string of celebrity endorsers who passionately speak for him and draw attention to his causes and ideals. Most notable among Obama supporters is the talk show host, media mogul, entrepreneur and philanthropist Oprah Winfrey. The internationally known “Queen of TV” publicly spoke about her reasons for endorsing Obama. She sincerely expressed her belief that Obama should be the next president.

However, Obama is not the only one with big names backing his campaign. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York also has star power enlisted in her campaign. Some prominent Clinton endorsers are Madonna, Barbara Streisand, Steven Spielberg, poet Maya Angelou, the novelists Anne Rice and John Grisham, Quincy Jones, America Ferrera of Ugly Betty fame and musicians 50 Cent, John Mayer and Jon Bon Jovi.

It has been a bit more difficult for Republican candidate John McCain to get endorsements from the predominantly Democratic world of show business. However, he did manage to garner some support from celebrities. Action stars Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sylvester Stallone, actor Tim Selleck and Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling are some of the names that support the Arizona senator.

Other celebrities who have endorsed Obama are George Clooney, Will Smith, Halle Berry, Matt Damon, Will.i.am of the Black Eyed Peas, Scarlett Johannsen, Morgan Freeman, Usher, Stevie Wonder, Sharon Stone, Ben Affleck and former basketball player Charles Barkley.

Gurumurthy Kalyanaram asked:


 
Senator Barack Obama has opted out of the public financing system in his contest for the U.S Presidency, and John McCain has decided to stay in the system. It appears that Obama may have about $250 million to invest in the months of September and October, and McCain may have only about $85 million.
Should McCain be afraid? No and Yes.
No, because I do not think that Obama’s financial edge will do much for him in advertising (traditional and non-traditional) for his candidacy and causes. The reason is simple — time is short, and there will be galore free publicity. Here are some ways that Obama may use his financial resources to increase the scale and scope of advertising. Let us look at various elements of this advertising.
First, Obama can and will probably advertise in almost all the 50 states — even as his campaign will concede that several states like Alaska have not voted for a Democratic candidate for a very long time. The goal of this exercise to merely scare up McCain’s campaign and force him to spend some of his valuable resources — money and time — in some of those states lest he should lose. Will this be effective? I rate the effectiveness about 3 on a 1-10 scale (10 being most effective) because when push comes to shove McCain will not divert his resources (he cannot afford to) and thus would call the bluff (not out of choice but out of necessity.)
Second, Obama can use micro-segmenting and try and use different media for diffusing his image. Money provides that luxury. Obama can also try non-traditional approaches and media.
Will be this an effective strategy? Better than the 50-states strategy but not overwhelmingly so. I would rate this strategy to be about 5. The reason is simple. The Presidential race will get plenty of free media coverage from networks, cable channels, print media, blogs, u-tube productions and those Presidential debates. Additional reach — over and above these — is likely to have marginal impact. Further, the content/message of the candidate does matter.
The message will determine the basic positioning of the candidate, and no amount of volume of reach can necessarily change that positioning. Two examples of this are: one, though Barack Obama invested thrice as much as Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania Democratic primary and twice as much in Ohio, the ultimate preference numbers did not change from the forecasts three weeks before the actual voting; two, with less than $1 million investment the ‘Swift Boat’ advertisement against John Kerry was devastatingly effective. In the first case, the message was the same but in the second case, the message was sharply different and new (whether that was true or not is besides the point — further, since Senator Kerry did not effectively and immediately repudiate the attacks the message assumed a level of truthfulness as a default.)
Final aspect of this element is that Obama is likely to receive somewhat of a negative coverage from the mainstream media for his rejection of public financing — this is not huge but one cannot ignore the word-of-mouth value of major networks and newspapers. In this case, the word-of-mouth effect would be negative.
Yes, because Obama might gain a very substantial advantage in voter registration, and mobilization with paid staff and localized promotion and patronage. It takes almost one-on-one to persuade a voter to register, and then actually vote on the election day. The upside of such voter mobilization is monumental. Particularly when the enthusiasm for McCain’s candidacy is somewhat muted thus far. For example, in the recent USA Today-Gall Up survey 61% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year’s election, while just 35% of Republicans said that.
Obama can employ this vast resource to mobilizing voters through registering new voters and individual contacts — paid staff (and volunteers) knocking on the doors, telephonic calls, mobilization on the day of the election. Here, the resources can make a very big impact. I would rate the potential effectiveness of this approach about 7. There is substantially higher marginal benefit to be achieved here.
For illustration, let us examine Ohio (20 electoral votes.) In 2000, Al Gore lost the state only by about 350,000 votes even without any campaign investment. In 2004, John Kerry lost Ohio by less than 120,000 votes. If only Kerry had mobilized 10 extra votes in every precinct in Ohio, he would have won Ohio and the Presidency. Obama can pour his resources in the ground game in Ohio and quite possibly win it given the current sour political climate. Similarly, Kerry lost New Mexico and Iowa by less than 20,000 votes each — and that can be easily overcome with strong election-day mobilization. In a state like Georgia where about 600,000 African-Americans have not registered to vote are rich Obama-votes. If they can be mobilized to register to vote and actually turn up to vote, Obama can put Georgia in play. In Florida, more than half a million black registered voters stayed home in 2004. Hundreds of thousands more African Americans are eligible to vote but not registered.